BS DuJour

Scientists have criticised a major review of the world’s remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough “proven” reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

According to “peak oil” theory our consumption of oil will catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete known reserves.

So this theory is proposed by an agenda group. What a surprise. It seems like news is driven by agenda groups these days. The press just reports wha they say as if its a fact, without checking the validity of their arguments or offering a counter-argument.

The facts are, we keep discovering huge oil fields. There is also plenty of oil in oil shale of which there are huge untapped resources on the planet. There is more than enough oil for 40 years and well before then we will be onto something else. We already have People using other fuels for their cars.

Besides, Peak Oil is an unproven theory. The fact is, we keep finding new oil fields all the time. We recently found a huge one in the Gulf of Mexico. We also have plenty of oil fields untapped in the US. Thre are many more yet undiscovered fields. We may find Greenland and the arctic circle to have plenty if GW continues as some people claim.

Now, I am all for viable alternatives to oil. And I think we will have them in the next 10 years. We’re already making good strides. Humans are resourceful. We figure out things sooner or later. When there is a demand like there is for energy now, it tends to be sooner.

The problem is, the peak oil story suits the agendas of certain grounds, including the oil companies. By scaring the market, prices increase which makes them wealthier. Environmental groups get paid more too, as they find more and more reasons to be strident, fueled on by this propaganda.

The public ends up suffering with high gas prices. But much of that is the result of polices we have. Punitive taxes on fuel. Not enough refineries. Absurd gas mixes that slow down capacity because they have to switch from one gas mix to another in production. If we would just established a standardized gasoline blend in this country, it would make gas prices lower and alleviate some of these problems. But again, there are people benefiting from this bureaucratic nonsense.

The public should be holding politicians accountable for creating many of these messes. Like anything, when lots of money is involved, everyone has tried to get their cut by running some game, and it has convoluted things to the mess it is now. We need to un-convolute it end make it teh system work better. That will lower prices and stop some of this market madness.

Of course, I don’t expect any o this to happen. But it should.

By the way, I remember in the mid to early 70s, when the energy crisis came up, they said we would run out of oil in 30 years. Funny, but 30 years later they are saying it again.

There is some weird stuff going on in this article.  First, BP claims that there is at least 40 years AT CURRENT CONSUMPTION RATES.  Well, world oil consumption is shooting up at a very aggressive rate.  That alone tells you that the truth may by closer to 30 year.

Also, the idea of world peak oil is off as well. Saudi Arabia wont peak for a long, long time.  Russia, and US peaked a long time ago.  All that is happening is that the line dividing that haves and the have nots is getting sharper.  Unfortunately for the US and China, we are in the have not category.

As for companies finding huge oil reserves…dont think for a second that anyone has found anything remotely close to the oil fields in the middle east. Those oil fields still make up like 80% of the “proven” oil. 

They key word is “proven” which means that it the oil is economically justifiable.  Lots of the oil found does not fall under this category.  That is why ANWAR didn’t work out as well as much of the off shore drilling.

As for shale oil, that is expensive stuff too.  Canada is able to make it work because they found a spot that was enormous (still talking like .1% the size of Saudi oil), concentrated, on cheap land and easily accessible.  Not all shale is so convenient. 

Another couple of tidbits to note is how much oil is used in making plastics.  With the price of steal raising so much, you will see an increased usage of oil for that.

Finally, it takes people an average of 8 years to adopt a new car.

So, you turn that 40 years of gas into 30.  It takes 10 years to develop the new technology, and it take 8 years for it to be adopted, then we really are not talking about much leeway at all.

I will add that people, markets and business are very resourceful and there is infinite potential for profits here so I am guessing that that 10 years will be leeway enough. 


Also, the idea of world peak oil is off as well. Saudia Arabia wont peak for a long, long time.  Russia, and US peaked a long time ago.  All that is happening is that the line deviding that haves and the have nots is getting sharper.  Unfortunately for the US and China, we are in the have not categroy.

As for companies finding huge oil reserves…dont think for a second that anyone has found anything remotely close to the oil fields in the middle east. Those oil fields still make up like 80% of the “proven” oil. 

They key word is “proven” which means that it the oil is economically justifiable.  Lots of the oil found doen not fall under this category.  Thats why ANWAR didn’t work out as well as many of the off shore drilling.

As for shale oil, thats expensive stuff.  Canada is able to make it work because they found a spot that was enourmous, concentrated, on cheap land and easily accessable.  Not all shale is so convinient. 

ANother couple of tidbits to note is how much oil is used in making plastics.  With the price of steal rising so much, you will see an increased usage of oil for that.

Finally, it takes people an average of 8 years to adopt a new car.

So, you turn that 40 yeas of gas into 30.  It takes 10 years to develop the new technology, and it take 8 years for it to be adopted, then we really are not talking about much leeway at all.

I will add that

Posted by  on  06/14  at  10:42 AM

obviously I am too resourceful with my use of “ctrl+P” usage.

Posted by  on  06/14  at  11:09 AM

Your post repeats.

Anyway, the problem with some of your point is: The US has vast sums of oil yet untapped. Off our coasts and ANWAR. Russia has large oil fields in Siberia they are just starting to exploit.

Canada’s Oil Shale fields are closer to Saudia Arabia’s reserves than not.l You say .1 percent? Way off base.

Yes, shale i expensive. That will eventually change as technology to refine it improves. But the biggest problem right now is production and refineries. And the laws that get in the way. If you cut out the taxes, gas prices would be around $1.50 in many states.

Posted by  on  06/14  at  11:15 AM

Oil sands may represent as much as 2/3 of the world’s total petroleum resource, with at least 1.7 trillion barrels (1.7×1012 bbl or 270×109 m³) in the Canadian Athabasca Oil Sands and perhaps 1.8 trillion barrels (1.8×1012 bbl or 280×109 m³) in the Venezuelan Orinoco tar sands[citation needed], compared to 1.75 trillion barrels (1.75×1012 bbl or 278×109 m³) of conventional oil worldwide, most of it in Saudi Arabia and other Middle-Eastern countries. Between them, the Canadian and Venezuelan deposits contain about 3.6 trillion barrels of oil in place. This is only the remnant of vast petroleum deposits which once totaled as much as 18 trillion barrels, most of which has escaped or been destroyed by bacteria over the eons. See also below notes about limits to production capacity.

Oil sand deposits are found in over 70 countries throughout the world, but three quarters of the world’s reserves are in two regions: Venezuela and the Athabasca located in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands

Posted by James Hudnall  on  06/14  at  11:48 AM

The key part is “known” oil reserves.  The fact is, our looking for oil has decreased dramatically.  Maybe that has something to do with finding less.

Posted by  on  06/14  at  04:26 PM
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