Peak Oil is a Myth part 3

This Forbes article from last year explains the confusion when people think we’re running out of oil. When you hear about oil reserves, they are referring to known oil fields. And the simple fact is, there hasn’t been a lot of oil prospecting outside of the US and Canada.

During the last 25 years more than 70% of exploration has taken place in the United States and Canada, mature areas that probably hold only 3% of the world’s reserves of crude. The Middle East, on the other hand, has been the scene of only 3% of global exploration, even though it harbors 70% of the earth’s reserves. In the Persian Gulf, holding 65% of the region’s reserves, fewer than 100 exploration wells were drilled between 1995 and 2004. During the same period, 15,700 such wells were drilled in the U.S.

Looking back over a longer time frame, you find the same lopsided ratios. In Saudi Arabia only 300 oil and gas wells (including developmental wells) have ever been drilled, as opposed to several hundred thousand in the U.S. The contrast is even more striking with respect to Iran and Iraq, and Russia is still paying the price for the technological backwardness and poor management of its fields during the Soviet era. Even today it is scarcely expanding its productive base, although its recent groping toward Western capital and expertise may change that picture ( click here to see story).

Venezuela could double its production of crude in ten years with the help of foreign capital and technology, but political considerations drive it in the opposite direction, and its production is falling.

In fact, the vast majority of prime producing countries get their oil from old fields, most of which have been in production since their discovery in the first half of the last century. And in many instances they are operated with 50- and 60-year-old technology and equipment.

There is little that the small or large Western oil companies can do to alter this situation. They control only 8% of global reserves of crude, while more than 90% of the world’s reserves are in countries that do not allow foreign access and are unwilling or unable to develop new reserves on their own.

There is undoubtedly more than enough oil in the world to last us another century at the very least. Probably two century’s worth. In 50 years, we won’t even need it (except maybe for plastics). The race is on to replace oil as an energy source, and human beings are very resourceful. As Bjørn Lomborg said: “We didn’t leave the stone age for lack of rocks.”

[ht: Will Brown and Al Fin]

We didn’t switch to metals because we lacked rocks, we switched to metals because we lacked easily available rocks.

Posted by mythusmage  on  11/25  at  11:47 PM

Did you know that Saudi Arabia’s 180 exploration wells have found about 240 to 400 billion barrels of oil (depending on who’s data you believe)?

Did you know that the first 50 of those exploration wells found 85% of that oil? The next 50 found about 10%, the next 50 found about 5% and the last 30 exploration wells have found essentially nothing.

It’s a simple pattern. Even if you are drilling blindly, you will find the largest fields first, as we did here in the US. With modern technology, there is no need to drill 99,000 dry holes (as we did here in the US) to find 1000 producing fields. Now we use seismic surveys to reduce the dry hole percentage from 99% to maybe 40%. But in the US, all the big fields have been found. We have to drill thousands of wells to find the tiny pockets that remain.

The Saudis can afford the best technology. They don’t need to drill 99,000 more dry holes to confirm that the Empty Quarter is devoid of oil. They know where their oil is.

Your article seems to be entirely ignorant of basic facts in the petroleum industry.

Posted by  on  11/26  at  06:44 PM

Did you know there’s large swaths of this planet that have not been explored for oil?

My article isn’t about Saudi Arabian Oil. The Forbes article merely mentions it.

Speaking of ignorance, you should learn how to read before you cast stones.

Posted by  on  11/26  at  10:19 PM

You obviously have absolutely no idea of what it is you’re writing about.  You should stick to comic books boy.  There, you MAY be in your league.

Posted by  on  11/27  at  03:40 PM

Anyone can tell someone to shut up. The difference is, I supply cites and you supply childish insults. That’s why your side always loses debates.

Posted by  on  11/27  at  04:54 PM

My side?  Lol.

Posted by  on  11/28  at  01:02 PM
Page 1 of 1 pages

<< Back to main