The Phoniness of the NIE Iran Report

Former UN ambassador John Bolton sums it up perfectly:

Rarely has a document from the supposedly hidden world of intelligence had such an impact as the National Intelligence Estimate released this week. Rarely has an administration been so unprepared for such an event. And rarely have vehement critics of the “intelligence community” on issues such as Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction reversed themselves so quickly.

All this shows that we not only have a problem interpreting what the mullahs in Tehran are up to, but also a more fundamental problem: Too much of the intelligence community is engaging in policy formulation rather than “intelligence” analysis, and too many in Congress and the media are happy about it. President Bush may not be able to repair his Iran policy (which was not rigorous enough to begin with) in his last year, but he would leave a lasting legacy by returning the intelligence world to its proper function.

We live in an age where minions in government agencies try to influence public policy through press leaks and falsified reports. If you believe that the intelligence reports that told us WMDs were real in Iraq were nothing but propaganda, then you have to believe that the Iran report is too. Federal employees last longer than presidents. They often run their own end game to influence policy, and they have the own politics which tend to lean more toward the Democrats big government approach because bureaucrats have a vested interest in the state expanding and paying them more money. They also have an interest in discrediting administrations they don’t like. And they have been working overtime to discredit this one. What better way to do that than to slap them in the face with this Iran report after teh president has been making all these claims about Iran’s nuclear ambition.

But this goes way beyond gamesmanship. What if the problem is real? What if Iran is on the verge of having nuclear weapons? This is a state that has been a major contributor to the terrorist incidents in Iraq. A state which has helped fund Al Qaeda. A state which believes in the advancement of Islamic fundamentalism. Trying to make Bush look bad at the expense of a real threat is beyond stupid. It’s potentially life threatening.

Sure, so is a war with Iran. But that was never likely to really happen. Many presidents use public statements to call other nations to action, or scare others into changing course. A president with a year left in his term is not likely to start a major war. Not when he’s got two fronts going already. All the hysteria from the WAGD* crowd notwithstanding.

Let’s just hope that the mistakes made by the usual suspects don’t cost us again any time soon.

[WAGD - We’re All Gonna Die! aka Dr. Zachary Smith imitators]

1. Quiz time!
   At various times the NIE said that there were no nuclear programs in…

   INDIA
   (it’s got the A-bomb)

   PAKISTAN
   (it’s got the A-bomb)

   ISRAEL
   (it’s got the A-bomb)

   NORTH KOREA
   (it’s working on the A-bomb)

   LIBYA
   (it only quit for fear of a US attack after the fall of Saddam)

   And SHAZAAAAM!!!
   Iran kind of stopped in 2003?
   When we had tanks and aircraft on their borders?
   Things that make you go huuuuuummmmmm..

   jn

   Posted by  on  12/08  at  12:20 PM
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