Thompson’s Southern Strategy
Many people I’ve talked to have shaken their head when I said I was rooting for Fred Thompson to win the nomination. But I think he has several things on his side the media hasn’t grasped yet. They have spent too much time trying to paint him as lazy for not doing what they told him he must do. One of the things I like about Thompson is he does things his way and not how the media says he has to do things. Now his strategy is starting to come to light.
“In most of the polls we’re ahead (in South Carolina) or a strong second, even though we’ve invested almost zero resources at this point. We view that as a solid opportunity for us,” says Bill Lacy, Mr. Thompson’s campaign manager.
Mr. Thompson’s “red-state” focus could have a particular payoff if the nomination comes down to a delegate count competition, since the party gives extra weight to states that voted for President Bush in 2004, or elected Republican governors and members of Congress. Most of those states lie in the South, the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains.
“Our polling shows us that we tend to do better in those three areas, particularly in the South,” Mr. Lacy says. “That has to do with who Fred is, where’s he’s from, and has to do with some of the baggage that Mayor Giuliani and Gov. Romney have from being from New York and Massachusetts and having more liberal records,” he adds. That’s a reference to Mr. Thompson’s two biggest rivals, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
In order to to win the presidency, you need the south. And Giuliani and Romney have thier north-east background against them. It will be an uphill battle for them down south. But Thompson, if he plays his cards right, can sweep the south. Only Huckabee offers him any solid competition there. And Huckabee is someone the press is starting to fluff up. But I suspect, when more about his record comes out that may change. Besides, who wants a President named Huckabee? Sorry.
Rudy would be my second pick, but as I said, his stand on guns and his nanny state instincts puts me off a bit.
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