Prediction Review for 2009

Every year at the end of the year I review my predictions from the previous year, and then on New Years eve I make predictions for the following year. Here are my predictions from last year. I must be psychic!

Obama will follow many of Bush’s policies, alienating him from many Democrats.

Yep. He has, and this has bothered the far lefties. But in many ways, he has done stupider things than Bush ever did.

The Democrats will become a fractious party with a lot of contention and some of them will challenge Obama’s authority.

Yep. I suspect that will continue to increase next year. Obama is a weak leader. Worse than I expected.

The economy will continue to suffer some setbacks, but there will be signs of improvement toward the end of the year.

Yep. But I wonder how valid those signs are.

Unemployment will get as high as 10% or more in some states.

Ha ha…it’s said to be more like 16% in reality.

More scandals will dog Democrats.

Yep.

Chicago politics will be a can of worms for Obama as more stuff haunts his administration.

Yes, especially with Blago and the failed Olympic bid.

SAG will not strike after all.

Yes, indeed.

There will be a backlash against rich celebrities who flaunted their money last year.

Well, not as much as I thought. Though people like Paris Hilton and so are are now in disfavor. More than before, anyway.

Obama will be fairly centrist on a lot of his policies, but his strong AGW stance will be met with a growing backlash.

I was wrong about the centrist thing, but right about the rest. Though he does do a fake kind of centrist act, Just not very well.

Obama will become less receptive to the press and the public as he becomes the target of more criticism.

Yep. It’s getting more so lately.

Many America haters in the Middle East and elsewhere will start testing the US. Obama’s responses will encourage more of our enemies getting emboldened.

That latest attack and all the domestic terrorist attacks prompted by Islamtic clerics, like the Ft. Hood point to this happening.

The Middle East will continue to heat up as Israel finds itself in more and more conflicts with the US having to take a position supporting them.

Obama has not been supportive of Israel at all.

Obama will not withdraw troops from Iraq as quickly as he implied before.

More or less true.

Gas prices will be fairly stable in 2009, but will probably be in the low $2 range most of the year.

Wrong. We have a white house that is hostile to oil and will make things worse.

More shocks in the housing market to come as ARM and other special mortgages cause another wave of defaults.

Yes, defaults continue. And the commercial market is expected to follow.

I suspect 2010 will be worse in many ways, but perhaps better toward the end. We’ll discuss that tomorrow.

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4 Comments

  1. Impressive!

    Maybe you can tell me where to invest my money in 2010, because for the first time in 15 years, I have no frickin’ clue. This economy is such an incomprehensible mess I’m at a compete loss. I mean, with inflation gaining speed, high unemployment, government takeovers and bailouts, $1.5 trillion printed out of nowhere, cap and trade looming, and the threat of nationalized health care…the stock market has been going UP?!? WTF?

  2. I think you were right in buying gold. Other than that, maybe foreign currencies. But if I had the money, I wouldn’t trust that right now either. It may sound crazy by I would stock up on non perishable foodstuffs. Get some big plastic buckets with lids. Stock up on rice, beans, et al. Just to be safe, You never know how bad it might get with this administration.

  3. The problem with a lot of emergency food like that is water. You need water, not only to drink and for sanitation, but for cooking dry foodstuffs. If things get so bad we have to live off the oatmeal in the basement, I wonder if the water supply will be available. I do have some dry food, two weeks worth, but I’ve mostly been hitting Costco and buying up crates of things that have water in them, like soups and tuna and such, when they have them on sale for stupid cheap prices. You can eat them cold, too. I have two tanks of propane, but that wouldn’t last long. I also have a 55gal drum of preserved water (actually, it’s about time to change it). And I have guns and thousands of rounds of ammo.
    But I have all that in case of a major earthquake. If Things Fall Apart…I dunno.
    Somebody once told me if they felt things were getting really bad, they’d fill their two car garage with toilet paper. He figured he’d be able to trade that for anything he wanted. And he’s probably right!

  4. I don’t think water will be a problem in a bad ecomy though with the way California mismanages it I can see more serious rationing. A major earthquake could seriously impact water availability in a city like yours and you guys are due for another one. It’s been about 20 years since the 89 quake. They seem to run in cycles.

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